Eagles vs Chargers — Week 14, 2025
The Eagles took over tied at 16 with 3:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 19, Chargers 19. Tied 19-19 — the drive scored.
Eagles ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 40, 3:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 50.5% for Eagles. Our model starts at 63.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:33) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to PHI 40 for no gain (93-O.Ogbonnia).
- (2:49) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at LAC 44 for 16 yards (27-R.Mickens).
- (2:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 88-D.Goedert.
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 11-A.Brown to LAC 25 for 19 yards (20-C.Hart).
- (2:33) 26-S.Barkley left end to LAC 26 for -1 yards (52-K.Mack).
- (2:27) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 11-A.Brown (20-C.Hart).
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 6-D.Smith.
- (2:20) 4-J.Elliott 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.99 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.05 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.99 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.60 pts |
| QB keep | +0.34 pts |
| Quick out | +0.23 pts |
| Curl route | +0.18 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.11 pts |
| Play action | +0.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.14 pts |
| Outside run | -0.19 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.81 pts |
| Inside run | -0.98 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.64 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.84 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.28 pts |
| Spike it | -2.77 pts |
| Deep post | -3.05 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.