Bengals vs Jets — Week 8, 2025
The Bengals took over trailing 39-38 with 1:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 38, Jets 39. Jets won 39-38 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Bengals ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 1:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 51.7% for Bengals. Our model starts at 48.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass short right to 1-J.Chase to CIN 32 for 7 yards (23-A.Thomas).
- (1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Brown left guard to CIN 44 for 12 yards (22-T.Adams).
- (:48) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep middle to 80-A.Iosivas (44-J.Sherwood, 22-T.Adams).
- (:42) (Shotgun) 34-S.Perine left guard to CIN 45 for 1 yard (9-W.McDonald; 95-Q.Williams).
- (:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete short left to 1-J.Chase.
- (:32) (Shotgun) 16-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 80-A.Iosivas (29-J.Brownlee).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.83 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-3.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.83 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.66 pts |
| QB keep | +1.57 pts |
| Quick out | +0.85 pts |
| Play action | +0.84 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.71 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.33 pts |
| Outside run | -0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.66 pts |
| Deep post | -0.86 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.90 pts |
| Inside run | -1.06 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
| Spike it | -3.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.