Bears vs Lions — Week 18, 2025
The Bears took over tied at 16 with 2:11 left, 1st & 10 at their own 26, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Bears 16, Lions 19. Lions won 19-16 — the drive turned it over.
Bears ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 26, 2:11 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 63.9% for Bears. Our model starts at 58.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:11) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 10-L.Burden.
- (2:07) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep left [23-R.Ya-Sin]. PENALTY on CHI-18-C.Williams, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 26.
- (2:02) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 25-K.Monangai pushed ob at CHI 31 for 15 yards (23-R.Ya-Sin).
- (1:55) 19-T.Taylor punts 46 yards to DET 23, Center-46-S.Daly. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 37 for 14 yards (21-T.Homer).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.97 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-5.03 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.97 pts |
| QB keep | +1.25 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.21 pts |
| Curl route | +1.05 pts |
| Quick out | +1.04 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.90 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.58 pts |
| Outside run | +0.22 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.00 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.07 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Play action | -1.70 pts |
| Spike it | -2.91 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.74 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.10 pts |
| Deep post | -5.03 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.