Texans vs Buccaneers — Week 2, 2025
The Texans took over trailing 14-13 with 3:00 left, 1st & 10 at the Buccaneers 26, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Texans 19, Buccaneers 20. Buccaneers won 20-19 — the drive scored.
Texans ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. In Buccaneers territory, 3:00 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 67.7% for Texans. Our model starts at 71.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:00) 21-N.Chubb left tackle to TB 25 for 1 yard (50-V.Vea).
- (2:16) 21-N.Chubb right guard for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 7-C.Stroud is sacked. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.90 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-4.84 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.90 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.43 pts |
| QB keep | +0.20 pts |
| Quick out | +0.16 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.05 pts |
| Outside run | -0.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.17 pts |
| Curl route | -0.22 pts |
| Play action | -0.23 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -0.83 pts |
| Field goal | -1.44 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.35 pts |
| Spike it | -2.45 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.89 pts |
| Deep post | -4.84 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.