Broncos vs Eagles — Week 5, 2025
The Broncos took over leading 18-17 with 5:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 21, Eagles 17. Broncos won 21-17 — the drive scored.
Broncos ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 32, 5:00 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 65.2% for Broncos. Our model starts at 62.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (5:00) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 82-A.Trautman to DEN 43 for 11 yards (53-Z.Baun; 33-C.DeJean).
- (4:17) 27-J.Dobbins right end to DEN 47 for 4 yards (24-A.Mukuba).
- (3:34) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right [58-J.Hunt].
- (3:28) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to PHI 37 for 16 yards (27-Q.Mitchell).
- (2:39) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to PHI 41 for 1 yard (0-J.Uche).
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton to PHI 29 for 12 yards (53-Z.Baun).
- (2:27) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to PHI 28 for 1 yard (24-A.Mukuba). PENALTY on PHI-53-Z.Baun, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at PHI 28.
- (2:21) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to PHI 13 for 1 yard (53-Z.Baun; 98-J.Carter). PHI-94-B.Young was injured during the play.
- (2:16) 27-J.Dobbins right guard to PHI 12 for 1 yard (97-M.Ojomo).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix sacked at PHI 13 for -1 yards (53-Z.Baun).
- (1:14) 3-W.Lutz 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.60 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.14 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.52 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.07 pts |
| QB keep | -0.07 pts |
| Quick out | -0.13 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.24 pts |
| Outside run | -0.33 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.45 pts |
| Curl route | -0.46 pts |
| Play action | -0.47 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.68 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.88 pts |
| Inside run | -1.04 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.69 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.39 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.85 pts |
| End-around | -3.05 pts |
| Deep post | -3.79 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.35 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.60 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.