Dolphins vs Commanders — Week 11, 2025
The Dolphins took over tied at 13 with 4:11 left, 1st & 10 at the Commanders 42, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 13, Commanders 13. Tied 13-13 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Dolphins ball, even score — any score wins it. In Commanders territory, 4:11 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 63.4% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 67.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:11) (Shotgun) 31-O.Gordon up the middle to WAS 41 for 1 yard (6-N.Igbinoghene).
- (3:30) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left tackle to WAS 29 for 12 yards (39-J.Reaves; 4-F.Luvu).
- (2:44) 28-D.Achane right tackle to WAS 24 for 5 yards (54-B.Wagner).
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right tackle pushed ob at WAS 6 for 18 yards (31-Jo.Jones).
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left guard to WAS 5 for 1 yard (99-J.Kinlaw; 96-J.Holmes).
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right end to WAS 1 for 4 yards (58-J.Magee; 31-Jo.Jones).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right tackle to WAS 1 for no gain (99-J.Kinlaw; 54-B.Wagner). MIA-28-D.Achane was injured during the play.
- (1:44) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 31-O.Gordon up the middle to WAS 3 for -2 yards (97-E.Goldman, 4-F.Luvu).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.43 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-4.57 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.43 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.73 pts |
| QB keep | +0.46 pts |
| Outside run | +0.34 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.27 pts |
| Quick out | +0.04 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.07 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.28 pts |
| Curl route | -0.34 pts |
| Inside run | -0.46 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Play action | -0.71 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.15 pts |
| Spike it | -2.59 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.84 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.34 pts |
| Deep post | -4.57 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.