Saints vs Titans — Week 17, 2025
The Saints took over leading 27-26 with 4:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 36, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Saints 34, Titans 26. Saints won 34-26 — the drive scored.
Saints ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 36, 4:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 66.8% for Saints. Our model starts at 65.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:54) 30-A.Estime up the middle to NO 45 for 9 yards (30-K.Brooks; 33-C.Gray). Penalty on TEN-98-J.Simmons, Defensive Offside, declined.
- (4:47) 30-A.Estime up the middle to NO 45 for no gain (93-T.Sweat; 98-J.Simmons).
- (4:02) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 83-J.Johnson to TEN 32 for 23 yards (37-A.Hooker).
- (3:54) 30-A.Estime left tackle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.24 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.93 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.24 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.49 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.01 pts |
| QB keep | -0.12 pts |
| Quick out | -0.16 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.27 pts |
| Outside run | -0.30 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.46 pts |
| Play action | -0.57 pts |
| Curl route | -0.59 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.65 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.86 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.67 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.57 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.06 pts |
| End-around | -3.17 pts |
| Deep post | -4.12 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.62 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.93 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.