Cowboys vs Giants — Week 2, 2025
The Cowboys took over tied at 37 with 4:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 38, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 40, Giants 37. Cowboys won 40-37 — the drive turned it over.
Cowboys ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 38, 4:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 52.0% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 59.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:52) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 29 for -9 yards (90-E.Garcia).
- (3:59) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams left tackle pushed ob at DAL 38 for 19 yards (27-T.Nubin).
- (3:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 1-J.Tolbert to DAL 43 for 5 yards (22-A.Phillips).
- (3:01) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to NYG 13, Center-44-T.Sieg. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 34 for 21 yards (89-B.Spann-Ford; 2-J.Thomas).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.07 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-5.46 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.07 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.92 pts |
| Quick out | +0.34 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.23 pts |
| QB keep | +0.08 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| Curl route | -0.16 pts |
| Outside run | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.89 pts |
| Inside run | -1.07 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.69 pts |
| Play action | -2.06 pts |
| Spike it | -2.85 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.02 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.43 pts |
| Deep post | -5.46 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.