Bengals vs Browns — Week 18, 2025
The Bengals took over trailing 17-12 with 2:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 39, 1 timeout in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 18, Browns 20. Browns won 20-18 — the drive scored.
Bengals ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 39, 2:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.7% for Bengals. Our model starts at 21.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:41) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 89-D.Sample to CIN 47 for 8 yards (30-D.Bush; 9-G.Delpit).
- (2:18) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 5-T.Higgins (20-D.Ross).
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase to CLE 42 for 11 yards (43-M.Diabate; 20-D.Ross).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right.
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 5-T.Higgins pushed ob at CLE 25 for 17 yards (20-D.Ross).
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 1-J.Chase to CLE 4 for 21 yards (27-S.Webb).
- (1:34) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE-27-S.Webb was injured during the play.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-J.Burrow pass to 88-M.Gesicki is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.63 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.63 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.22 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.15 pts |
| Deep post | +1.03 pts |
| QB keep | +1.01 pts |
| Play action | +0.77 pts |
| Quick out | +0.54 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.44 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.26 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.22 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -1.26 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.45 pts |
| Spike it | -2.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.