Panthers vs Dolphins — Week 5, 2025
The Panthers took over trailing 24-20 with 4:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Dolphins.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 27, Dolphins 24. Panthers won 27-24 — the drive scored.
Panthers ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 17, 4:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.8% for Panthers. Our model starts at 24.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:31) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to CAR 33 for 16 yards (9-I.Melifonwu; 21-A.Davis). PENALTY on MIA-92-Z.Sieler, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at CAR 33.
- (4:26) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 17-X.Legette ran ob at MIA 38 for 24 yards (21-A.Davis).
- (4:21) 23-T.Etienne left tackle to MIA 33 for 5 yards (9-I.Melifonwu; 29-M.Fitzpatrick).
- (3:42) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep left to 4-T.McMillan.
- (3:36) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 13-H.Renfrow.
- (3:31) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 15-Ji.Horn to MIA 16 for 17 yards (26-R.Douglas).
- (2:48) 23-T.Etienne left tackle to MIA 4 for 12 yards (26-R.Douglas, 3-K.Britt).
- (2:03) 9-B.Young pass short right to 84-M.Evans for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.43 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.22 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.43 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.26 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.19 pts |
| QB keep | +0.03 pts |
| Play action | -0.21 pts |
| Quick out | -0.34 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.41 pts |
| Deep post | -0.47 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.63 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.79 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.90 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.00 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.01 pts |
| Outside run | -1.13 pts |
| Inside run | -1.63 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.84 pts |
| Spike it | -2.22 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.