Colts vs Texans — Week 13, 2025
The Colts took over trailing 20-16 with 4:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Colts 16, Texans 20. Texans won 20-16 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Colts ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 17, 4:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 29.2% for Colts. Our model starts at 26.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:45) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor up the middle to IND 28 for 11 yards (2-C.Bullock; 45-E.Speed). PENALTY on HOU-45-E.Speed, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at IND 28.
- (4:40) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right guard to IND 35 for 2 yards (45-E.Speed).
- (4:01) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep middle to 14-A.Pierce to HOU 43 for 22 yards (45-E.Speed; 25-M.Bryant) [90-S.Rankins].
- (3:22) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right end to HOU 32 for 11 yards (2-C.Bullock).
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left guard to HOU 31 for 1 yard (2-C.Bullock). ** Injury Update: HOU-0-A.Al-Shaair has returned to the game.
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 14-A.Pierce.
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 2-J.Downs [39-H.To'oTo'o].
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Pittman [51-W.Anderson].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.36 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.29 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.36 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.20 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.16 pts |
| Play action | +0.01 pts |
| Deep post | -0.09 pts |
| QB keep | -0.24 pts |
| Quick out | -0.37 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.45 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.54 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.66 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.67 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.03 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.16 pts |
| Outside run | -1.31 pts |
| Inside run | -1.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.00 pts |
| Spike it | -2.29 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.