Vikings vs Browns — Week 5, 2025
The Vikings took over trailing 17-14 with 3:05 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 1 timeout in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 21, Browns 17. Vikings won 21-17 — the drive scored.
Vikings ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 20, 3:05 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.9% for Vikings. Our model starts at 27.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:05) (Shotgun) 27-J.Mason right tackle to MIN 29 for 9 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 33-R.Hickman).
- (2:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 1-J.Nailor to MIN 32 for 3 yards (26-M.Harden).
- (2:17) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 38 for 6 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 26-M.Harden).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to CLE 48 for 14 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 33-R.Hickman).
- (1:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 18-J.Jefferson to CLE 27 for 21 yards (21-D.Ward).
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 1-J.Nailor ran ob at CLE 23 for 4 yards (0-G.Newsome).
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 27-J.Mason pushed ob at CLE 21 for 2 yards (26-M.Harden). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 27-J.Mason to CLE 21 for 2 yards (26-M.Harden).
- (:59) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 3-J.Addison to CLE 17 for 4 yards (26-M.Harden).
- (:54) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 3-J.Addison to CLE 12 for 5 yards (49-C.Schwesinger; 33-R.Hickman).
- (:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 3-J.Addison for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.60 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.39 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.60 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.25 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.24 pts |
| QB keep | +1.11 pts |
| Play action | +0.72 pts |
| Quick out | +0.55 pts |
| Deep post | +0.45 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.45 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.06 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.15 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.54 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| Spike it | -2.39 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.