49ers vs Jaguars — Week 4, 2025
The 49ers took over trailing 26-21 with 3:32 left, 1st & 10 at their own 37, 1 timeout in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 21, Jaguars 26. Jaguars won 26-21 — the drive turnover.
49ers ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 37, 3:32 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 29.0% for 49ers. Our model starts at 22.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:32) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 23-C.McCaffrey to 50 for 13 yards (23-F.Oluokun; 3-T.Campbell).
- (2:52) 13-B.Purdy sacked at SF 43 for -7 yards (91-A.Armstead). FUMBLES (91-A.Armstead), RECOVERED by JAX-23-F.Oluokun at SF 47. JAX-52-D.Hamilton was injured during the play.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.40 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.07 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.40 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.05 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.03 pts |
| QB keep | +0.91 pts |
| Play action | +0.61 pts |
| Deep post | +0.60 pts |
| Quick out | +0.44 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.35 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.02 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.18 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.39 pts |
| Spike it | -2.07 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.