Browns vs Bengals — Week 18, 2025
The Browns took over leading 17-12 with 3:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Browns 20, Bengals 18. Browns won 20-18 — the drive turned it over.
Browns ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Backed up at their own 9, 3:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 80.2% for Browns. Our model starts at 85.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:49) 22-D.Sampson right guard to CLE 12 for 3 yards (99-M.Murphy).
- (3:06) 12-S.Sanders sacked at CLE 5 for -7 yards (98-T.Slaton).
- (3:01) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders scrambles right end to CLE 18 for 13 yards (99-M.Murphy; 97-S.Stewart).
- (2:50) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to CIN 36, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 12-K.Williams to CIN 39 for 3 yards (28-T.Avery).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.81 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.81 pts |
| Outside run | -0.68 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.73 pts |
| Inside run | -0.87 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.98 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.30 pts |
| Quick out | -1.57 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.60 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.62 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.75 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.76 pts |
| QB keep | -1.80 pts |
| Play action | -3.03 pts |
| Curl route | -3.20 pts |
| End-around | -5.08 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.15 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.93 pts |
| Deep post | -7.98 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.55 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.13 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.