Jaguars vs Colts — Week 17, 2025
The Jaguars took over leading 20-17 with 3:06 left, 1st & 10 at the Colts 48, 1 timeout in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 23, Colts 17. Jaguars won 23-17 — the drive scored.
Jaguars ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. Near midfield, 3:06 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 80.7% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 84.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:06) 1-T.Etienne right end to IND 39 for 9 yards (20-N.Cross).
- (2:20) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne right tackle to IND 39 for no gain (92-N.Gallimore; 44-Z.Franklin).
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 3-J.Meyers to IND 39 for 9 yards (23-K.Moore).
- (2:00) 16-T.Lawrence left guard to IND 36 for 3 yards (23-K.Moore).
- (1:55) 64-W.Milum reported in as eligible. 1-T.Etienne right guard to IND 31 for 5 yards (20-N.Cross; 44-Z.Franklin).
- (1:51) 1-T.Etienne right end to IND 30 for 1 yard (51-K.Paye; 95-A.Adebawore).
- (1:06) 11-P.Washington right end to IND 35 for -5 yards (20-N.Cross).
- (:24) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.73 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.37 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.73 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.09 pts |
| Outside run | -0.10 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| Quick out | -0.46 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.53 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.55 pts |
| Inside run | -0.58 pts |
| QB keep | -0.63 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.63 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| Play action | -1.54 pts |
| Curl route | -1.82 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.96 pts |
| End-around | -4.12 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.70 pts |
| Deep post | -6.77 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.61 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.37 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.