Broncos vs Raiders — Week 10, 2025
The Broncos took over leading 10-7 with 4:26 left, 1st & 10 at their own 38, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Broncos 10, Raiders 7. Broncos won 10-7 — the drive time expired.
Broncos ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 38, 4:26 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 81.1% for Broncos. Our model starts at 78.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:26) 27-J.Dobbins left end to DEN 46 for 8 yards (45-D.White). ** Injury Update: DEN-77-Q.Meinerz has returned to the game.
- (3:44) 27-J.Dobbins right tackle to DEN 47 for 1 yard (49-C.Snowden).
- (3:06) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 11-T.Franklin ran ob at LV 35 for 18 yards (32-L.Johnson).
- (3:00) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LV 26 for 4 yards (97-T.Hemingway).
- (2:26) 27-J.Dobbins right guard to LV 26 for no gain (11-J.Chinn; 98-M.Crosby).
- (2:21) 10-B.Nix up the middle to LV 25 for 1 yard (99-T.Booker).
- (2:18) 27-J.Dobbins up the middle to LV 18 for 7 yards (36-K.Kelly; 20-I.Pola-Mao).
- (2:00) 27-J.Dobbins left end to LV 13 for 5 yards (11-J.Chinn; 96-J.Laulu).
- (1:13) 10-B.Nix kneels to LV 14 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 10-B.Nix kneels to LV 15 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.69 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.72 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.69 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.12 pts |
| Outside run | -0.21 pts |
| Quick out | -0.45 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.52 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.53 pts |
| QB keep | -0.55 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.66 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Play action | -1.34 pts |
| Curl route | -1.55 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.64 pts |
| End-around | -3.87 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.31 pts |
| Deep post | -6.08 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.09 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.72 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.