Panthers vs Rams — Week 13, 2025
The Panthers took over leading 31-28 with 2:25 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 31, Rams 28. Panthers won 31-28 — the drive time expired.
Panthers ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 34, 2:25 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 81.5% for Panthers. Our model starts at 83.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:25) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to CAR 38 for 4 yards (95-P.Ford).
- (2:21) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle to CAR 39 for 1 yard (3-K.Curl).
- (2:17) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 18-J.Coker to CAR 49 for 10 yards (26-K.Kinchens).
- (2:00) 9-B.Young kneels to CAR 48 for -1 yards.
- (1:20) 9-B.Young kneels to CAR 47 for -1 yards.
- (:38) 9-B.Young kneels to CAR 45 for -2 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.54 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.10 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.54 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.25 pts |
| Outside run | -0.10 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.33 pts |
| Quick out | -0.34 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.42 pts |
| QB keep | -0.48 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.54 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Inside run | -0.62 pts |
| Play action | -1.33 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Curl route | -1.56 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.72 pts |
| End-around | -4.03 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.45 pts |
| Deep post | -6.42 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.38 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.10 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.