Cowboys vs Chiefs — Week 13, 2025
The Cowboys took over leading 31-28 with 3:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 31, Chiefs 28. Cowboys won 31-28 — the drive time expired.
Cowboys ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 32, 3:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 79.4% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 79.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:21) 33-J.Williams left guard to DAL 34 for 2 yards (32-N.Bolton, 56-G.Karlaftis).
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to DAL 39 for 1 yard (95-C.Jones; 56-G.Karlaftis).
- (3:04) 33-J.Williams left tackle to KC 41 for 7 yards (23-D.Tranquill; 22-T.McDuffie).
- (2:57) 33-J.Williams left tackle to KC 40 for 1 yard (95-C.Jones).
- (2:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens to KC 27 for 13 yards (35-J.Watson).
- (2:00) 4-D.Prescott kneels to KC 28 for -1 yards.
- (1:19) 4-D.Prescott kneels to KC 28 for no gain.
- (:38) 4-D.Prescott kneels to KC 29 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.69 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.61 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.69 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.32 pts |
| Outside run | -0.08 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.27 pts |
| Quick out | -0.29 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.37 pts |
| QB keep | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.66 pts |
| Play action | -1.13 pts |
| Curl route | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.45 pts |
| End-around | -3.78 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.12 pts |
| Deep post | -5.88 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.97 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.61 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.