Vikings vs Lions — Week 17, 2025
The Vikings took over leading 13-10 with 4:39 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 23, Lions 10. Vikings won 23-10 — the drive scored.
Vikings ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 35, 4:39 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 79.5% for Vikings. Our model starts at 77.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:39) 33-A.Jones right tackle to MIN 35 for no gain (92-M.Davenport).
- (3:52) 3-J.Addison right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.65 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.57 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.65 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.12 pts |
| Outside run | -0.24 pts |
| Quick out | -0.45 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.48 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.54 pts |
| QB keep | -0.54 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.56 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.67 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.73 pts |
| Inside run | -0.80 pts |
| Play action | -1.31 pts |
| Curl route | -1.51 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.60 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.58 pts |
| End-around | -3.83 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.23 pts |
| Deep post | -5.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.98 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.57 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.