Buccaneers vs Panthers — Week 18, 2025
The Buccaneers took over leading 16-14 with 2:23 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 16, Panthers 14. Buccaneers won 16-14 — the drive turned it over.
Buccaneers ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 29, 2:23 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 82.0% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 75.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:23) 77-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 7-B.Irving left tackle to TB 32 for 3 yards (7-T.Moehrig; 2-M.Jackson).
- (2:17) 77-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 7-B.Irving right guard to TB 35 for 3 yards (94-A.Robinson).
- (2:12) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to CAR 45 for 20 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
- (2:00) 7-B.Irving left guard to CAR 43 for 2 yards (95-D.Brown).
- (1:56) 7-B.Irving left guard to CAR 41 for 2 yards (56-C.Rozeboom; 95-D.Brown).
- (1:11) 7-B.Irving left end to CAR 39 for 2 yards (98-D.Wonnum).
- (:26) 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to CAR 3, Center-86-E.Deckers. 87-B.Tremayne to CAR 3 for no gain (48-J.Gray).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.32 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.87 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.32 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.72 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.19 pts |
| Quick out | +0.02 pts |
| QB keep | +0.00 pts |
| Outside run | -0.03 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.27 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| Play action | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Curl route | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.72 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.83 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.43 pts |
| End-around | -3.47 pts |
| Deep post | -4.91 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.32 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.87 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.