Steelers vs Ravens — Week 14, 2025
The Steelers took over leading 27-22 with 2:22 left, 1st & 10 at their own 8, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 27, Ravens 22. Steelers won 27-22 — the drive turned it over.
Steelers ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Backed up at their own 8, 2:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 82.4% for Steelers. Our model starts at 88.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:22) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 30-J.Warren left guard to PIT 9 for 1 yard (12-A.Gilman; 0-R.Smith).
- (2:17) 30-J.Warren right end to PIT 11 for 2 yards (53-K.Van Noy).
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling (44-M.Humphrey).
- (2:08) 3-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to BAL 36, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 83-L.Wester to BAL 44 for 8 yards (41-P.Wilson). PENALTY on BAL-39-K.Jackson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 36.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.72 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.45 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.72 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.72 pts |
| Outside run | -0.76 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.83 pts |
| Inside run | -0.93 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.23 pts |
| Quick out | -1.51 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.54 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.54 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.78 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.85 pts |
| QB keep | -1.87 pts |
| Play action | -3.02 pts |
| Curl route | -3.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.13 pts |
| End-around | -5.17 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.96 pts |
| Deep post | -8.06 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.82 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.45 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.