Eagles vs Chiefs — Week 2, 2025
The Eagles took over leading 20-17 with 2:59 left, 1st & 10 at the Chiefs 41, 1 timeout in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 20, Chiefs 17. Eagles won 20-17 — the drive time expired.
Eagles ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. In Chiefs territory, 2:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 83.7% for Eagles. Our model starts at 86.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:59) 74-F.Johnson reported in as eligible. 26-S.Barkley left guard to KC 32 for 9 yards (6-B.Cook).
- (2:13) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to KC 32 for no gain (23-D.Tranquill). (Virtual Measurement).
- (2:00) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to KC 30 for 2 yards (35-J.Watson; 23-D.Tranquill).
- (1:13) 1-J.Hurts kneels to KC 31 for -1 yards.
- (:39) 1-J.Hurts kneels to KC 32 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.67 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.65 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.67 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.02 pts |
| Outside run | -0.15 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.52 pts |
| Quick out | -0.54 pts |
| Inside run | -0.58 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.61 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.68 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.69 pts |
| QB keep | -0.74 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| Play action | -1.72 pts |
| Curl route | -2.03 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.17 pts |
| End-around | -4.28 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.94 pts |
| Deep post | -7.12 pts |
| Field goal | -7.63 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.86 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.65 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.