Browns vs Vikings — Week 5, 2025
The Browns took over leading 17-14 with 3:27 left, 1st & 10 at their own 41, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Browns 17, Vikings 21. Vikings won 21-17 — the drive turned it over.
Browns ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 41, 3:27 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 81.6% for Browns. Our model starts at 82.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:27) 10-Q.Judkins right tackle to CLE 40 for -1 yards (58-J.Greenard, 55-E.Wilson).
- (3:24) 10-Q.Judkins right guard to CLE 40 for no gain (97-J.Hargrave; 15-D.Turner).
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass incomplete deep right to 16-I.Bond.
- (3:16) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to MIN 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 4-M.Price to MIN 20 for 3 yards (31-D.McMillon; 28-T.Avery).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.67 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.07 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.67 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.14 pts |
| Outside run | -0.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| Quick out | -0.42 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.48 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.50 pts |
| QB keep | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.61 pts |
| Inside run | -0.65 pts |
| Play action | -1.41 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| Curl route | -1.65 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.79 pts |
| End-around | -4.01 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.50 pts |
| Deep post | -6.43 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.37 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.07 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.