Steelers vs Lions — Week 16, 2025
The Steelers took over leading 29-24 with 4:07 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 1 timeout in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 29, Lions 24. Steelers won 29-24 — the drive missed field goal.
Steelers ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 34, 4:07 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.8% for Steelers. Our model starts at 85.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:07) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 81-J.Smith left end to DET 46 for 20 yards (29-A.Maddox).
- (3:22) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-D.Washington pushed ob at DET 33 for 13 yards (34-A.Anzalone; 46-J.Campbell).
- (3:12) 81-J.Smith left end pushed ob at DET 25 for 8 yards (46-J.Campbell; 34-A.Anzalone). PENALTY on DET-98-D.Reader, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DET 25.
- (3:04) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 14-K.Gainwell left tackle to DET 21 for -1 yards (54-A.McNeill).
- (2:21) 14-K.Gainwell right end to DET 18 for 3 yards (46-J.Campbell; 54-A.McNeill).
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right. DET-29-A.Maddox was injured during the play.
- (2:09) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.73 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.75 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.73 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.20 pts |
| Outside run | -0.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -0.65 pts |
| Quick out | -0.69 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.75 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.87 pts |
| QB keep | -0.90 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| Play action | -1.91 pts |
| Curl route | -2.23 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.33 pts |
| End-around | -4.36 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.11 pts |
| Deep post | -7.29 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.97 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.75 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.