Ravens vs Steelers — Week 18, 2025
The Ravens took over trailing 20-17 with 3:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 24, Steelers 26. Steelers won 26-24 — the drive scored.
Ravens ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 27, 3:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.0% for Ravens. Our model starts at 33.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:43) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 28 for 1 yard (97-Ca.Heyward; 50-M.Harrison).
- (2:59) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 42-P.Ricard to BAL 36 for 8 yards (50-M.Harrison).
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-24-J.Porter, Defensive Holding, declined.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.36 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.67 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.36 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.19 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.11 pts |
| QB keep | +1.05 pts |
| Play action | +0.51 pts |
| Quick out | +0.47 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.36 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.03 pts |
| Deep post | -0.30 pts |
| Outside run | -0.47 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.50 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.54 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.65 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| Spike it | -2.67 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.