Chiefs vs Colts — Week 12, 2025
The Chiefs took over trailing 20-17 with 4:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 6, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 20, Colts 20. Tied 20-20 — the drive scored.
Chiefs ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Backed up at their own 6, 4:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.1% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 32.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 1-X.Worthy.
- (4:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 4-R.Rice pushed ob at 50 for 47 yards (53-G.Pratt).
- (4:25) 29-K.Hunt up the middle to IND 48 for 2 yards (53-G.Pratt).
- (3:54) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 1-X.Worthy (7-C.Ward).
- (3:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 83-N.Gray to IND 43 for 5 yards (23-K.Moore) [44-Z.Franklin]. KC-83-N.Gray was injured during the play.
- (3:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 4-R.Rice to IND 24 for 19 yards (0-C.Bynum).
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt left guard to IND 22 for 2 yards (97-L.Latu).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 9-J.Smith-Schuster to IND 14 for 8 yards (1-A.Gardner).
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right tackle to IND 11 for 3 yards (51-K.Paye; 90-G.Stewart).
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 24-B.Smith to IND 5 for 6 yards (20-N.Cross).
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 77-J.Moore reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt up the middle to IND 2 for 3 yards (53-G.Pratt).
- (1:05) (Shotgun) 77-J.Moore reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt left guard to IND 3 for -1 yards (53-G.Pratt).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.01 pts), and the weakest was Deep corner (-2.94 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.01 pts |
| QB keep | -1.40 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.42 pts |
| Quick out | -1.54 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.59 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.63 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.74 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.83 pts |
| Outside run | -1.88 pts |
| Inside run | -1.95 pts |
| Curl route | -2.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.30 pts |
| Play action | -2.44 pts |
| Deep post | -2.55 pts |
| Spike it | -2.59 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.71 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.94 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.