49ers vs Seahawks — Week 1, 2025
The 49ers took over trailing 13-10 with 3:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 17, Seahawks 13. 49ers won 17-13 — the drive scored.
49ers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 32, 3:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.7% for 49ers. Our model starts at 35.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:19) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 23-C.McCaffrey to SF 33 for 1 yard (29-J.Jobe).
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep left to 1-R.Pearsall ran ob at SEA 22 for 45 yards (8-C.Bryant).
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 88-J.Tonges to SEA 20 for 2 yards (48-T.Knight) [91-B.Murphy].
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 88-J.Tonges to SEA 11 for 9 yards (13-E.Jones) [99-L.Williams]. Penalty on SEA-29-J.Jobe, Illegal Contact, declined.
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 23-C.McCaffrey left guard to SEA 10 for 1 yard (20-J.Love; 99-L.Williams).
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 23-C.McCaffrey to SEA 4 for 6 yards (13-E.Jones; 48-T.Knight).
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 88-J.Tonges for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-D.Hall].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.75 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.73 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.75 pts |
| Curl route | +1.54 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.26 pts |
| Quick out | +0.94 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.82 pts |
| QB keep | +0.78 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.47 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.19 pts |
| Play action | -0.37 pts |
| Outside run | -0.75 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.86 pts |
| Deep post | -1.46 pts |
| Inside run | -1.47 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.50 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.65 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.82 pts |
| Spike it | -2.73 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.