Bengals vs Jaguars — Week 2, 2025
The Bengals took over trailing 27-24 with 3:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 8, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 31, Jaguars 27. Bengals won 31-27 — the drive scored.
Bengals ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Backed up at their own 8, 3:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.1% for Bengals. Our model starts at 30.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:42) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass incomplete short left to 5-T.Higgins.
- (3:38) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass incomplete deep left to 5-T.Higgins (3-T.Campbell).
- (3:33) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short middle to 89-D.Sample to CIN 15 for 7 yards (41-J.Hines-Allen; 23-F.Oluokun).
- (2:45) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 30-C.Brown pushed ob at CIN 28 for 13 yards (12-T.Hunter).
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short left to 86-N.Fant to CIN 27 for -1 yards (2-J.Lewis).
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki to CIN 33 for 6 yards (2-J.Lewis; 23-F.Oluokun).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass incomplete short right to 80-A.Iosivas (2-J.Lewis).
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to JAX 37 for 5 yards (2-J.Lewis).
- (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short left to 1-J.Chase pushed ob at JAX 21 for 16 yards (12-T.Hunter).
- (1:20) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short middle to 88-M.Gesicki to JAX 11 for 10 yards (6-D.Savage).
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 6-J.Browning pass short left to 1-J.Chase to JAX 4 for 7 yards (3-T.Campbell).
- (1:04) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown up the middle to JAX 1 for 3 yards (41-J.Hines-Allen).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.16 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.55 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.16 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.44 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.46 pts |
| Curl route | -1.51 pts |
| QB keep | -1.57 pts |
| Quick out | -1.57 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.61 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.66 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.78 pts |
| Deep post | -1.88 pts |
| Play action | -2.05 pts |
| Outside run | -2.16 pts |
| Inside run | -2.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.28 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.48 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.53 pts |
| Spike it | -2.55 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.