Raiders vs Jaguars — Week 9, 2025
The Raiders took over trailing 20-16 with 4:00 left, 1st & 10 at their own 38, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 23, Jaguars 23. Tied 23-23 — the drive scored.
Raiders ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 38, 4:00 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.7% for Raiders. Our model starts at 31.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to LV 47 for 9 yards (22-J.Jones, 30-M.Brown).
- (3:22) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 89-B.Bowers to JAX 44 for 9 yards (22-J.Jones).
- (2:45) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 87-M.Mayer to JAX 33 for 11 yards (22-J.Jones).
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 1-T.Tucker to JAX 27 for 6 yards (30-M.Brown).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.32 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.57 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.32 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.12 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.06 pts |
| QB keep | +1.00 pts |
| Play action | +0.50 pts |
| Quick out | +0.45 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.33 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.02 pts |
| Deep post | -0.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.49 pts |
| Spike it | -2.57 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.