Packers vs Cowboys — Week 4, 2025
The Packers took over trailing 30-27 with 4:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Packers 40, Cowboys 40. Tied 40-40 — the drive scored.
Packers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 20, 4:50 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.4% for Packers. Our model starts at 32.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 83-S.Williams pushed ob at GB 22 for 2 yards (27-R.Steward).
- (4:42) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs right end to GB 22 for no gain (95-K.Clark). ** Injury Update: GB-8-J.Jacobs has returned to the game.
- (3:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 87-R.Doubs to GB 40 for 18 yards (6-D.Wilson). DAL-59-K.Murray was injured during the play.
- (3:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right.
- (3:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 23-E.Wilson to DAL 47 for 13 yards (57-J.Sanborn; 2-J.Thomas).
- (2:53) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson left tackle to DAL 44 for 3 yards (50-S.James; 42-J.Clowney).
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs left guard to DAL 15 for 14 yards (97-O.Odighizuwa; 50-S.James).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs right end to DAL 18 for -3 yards (27-R.Steward). ** Injury Update: DAL-59-K.Murray has returned to the game.
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 23-E.Wilson left end to DAL 15 for 3 yards (7-T.Diggs).
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.88 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.88 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.85 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.72 pts |
| Play action | +0.54 pts |
| QB keep | +0.40 pts |
| Quick out | +0.23 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.13 pts |
| Deep post | -0.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.15 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.36 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.51 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.64 pts |
| Outside run | -0.81 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.86 pts |
| Inside run | -1.41 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.73 pts |
| Spike it | -2.59 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.