Steelers vs Browns — Week 17, 2025
The Steelers took over trailing 10-6 with 2:16 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 6, Browns 13. Browns won 13-6 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Steelers ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 20, 2:16 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.6% for Steelers. Our model starts at 20.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling.
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 88-P.Freiermuth [93-S.Harris].
- (2:08) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to 16-A.Thielen [91-A.Wright].
- (2:02) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 13-S.Miller (93-S.Harris).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.70 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.00 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.70 pts |
| QB keep | +1.29 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.27 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.18 pts |
| Deep post | +1.15 pts |
| Play action | +0.81 pts |
| Quick out | +0.56 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.46 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.33 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.29 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.15 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -1.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.38 pts |
| Spike it | -2.00 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.