Panthers vs Falcons — Week 11, 2025
The Panthers took over trailing 24-19 with 2:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 1 timeout in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Panthers 27, Falcons 27. Tied 27-27 — the drive scored.
Panthers ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 35, 2:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.9% for Panthers. Our model starts at 19.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:43) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 5-R.Dowdle (36-R.Harrison). ** Injury Update: CAR-9-B.Young has returned to the game.
- (2:38) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 87-B.Tremayne to CAR 41 for 6 yards (36-R.Harrison).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short right to 30-C.Hubbard.
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 0-J.Sanders to ATL 49 for 10 yards (31-X.Watts).
- (1:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 87-B.Tremayne to ATL 38 for 11 yards.
- (1:29) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 5-R.Dowdle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 5-R.Dowdle pushed ob at ATL 10 for 28 yards (3-J.Bates).
- (1:23) (Shotgun) 5-R.Dowdle left guard to ATL 12 for -2 yards (98-R.Orhorhoro).
- (1:19) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left to 5-R.Dowdle.
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 4-T.McMillan for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 9-B.Young pass to 18-J.Coker is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.55 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.91 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.55 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.15 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.08 pts |
| Deep post | +1.03 pts |
| QB keep | +0.95 pts |
| Play action | +0.72 pts |
| Quick out | +0.50 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.41 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.27 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.23 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.12 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.41 pts |
| Spike it | -1.91 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.