Bills vs Texans — Week 12, 2025
The Bills took over trailing 23-19 with 2:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Bills 19, Texans 23. Texans won 23-19 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Bills ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 18, 2:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.6% for Bills. Our model starts at 22.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 4-J.Cook to BUF 24 for 6 yards (23-J.Reed).
- (2:13) 4-J.Cook left guard to BUF 27 for 3 yards (90-S.Rankins; 39-H.To'oTo'o).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at BUF 35 for 8 yards (2-C.Bullock).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 26-Ty.Johnson to BUF 44 for 9 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o; 23-J.Reed).
- (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox to BUF 47 for 3 yards (23-J.Reed).
- (1:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 18-E.Moore (4-K.Lassiter).
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 37 for -10 yards (55-D.Hunter).
- (:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen sacked at BUF 30 for -7 yards (sack split by 51-W.Anderson and 97-M.Edwards). Penalty on BUF-74-R.Van Demark, Offensive Holding, declined.
- (:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 5-J.Palmer to BUF 41 for 11 yards. Lateral to 10-K.Shakir pushed ob at HOU 26 for 33 yards (23-J.Reed).
- (:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep right to 13-G.Davis.
- (:35) (Shotgun) 26-Ty.Johnson left end to HOU 17 for 9 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o).
- (:28) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 10-K.Shakir (51-W.Anderson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.10 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.09 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.10 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.76 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.63 pts |
| Deep post | +0.54 pts |
| QB keep | +0.44 pts |
| Play action | +0.29 pts |
| Quick out | +0.02 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.06 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.16 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.23 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.77 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.04 pts |
| Outside run | -1.13 pts |
| Inside run | -1.64 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.82 pts |
| Spike it | -2.09 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.