Vikings vs Steelers — Week 4, 2025

What really happened

Final: Vikings 21, Steelers 24. Steelers won 24-21 — the drive turned it over on downs.

Vikings ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 20, 1:02 on the clock, no timeouts left.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.9% for Vikings. Our model starts at 21.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (1:02) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left intended for 1-J.Nailor INTERCEPTED by 42-J.Pierre at MIN 37. 42-J.Pierre pushed ob at MIN 37 for no gain (1-J.Nailor). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep left to 1-J.Nailor (42-J.Pierre). ** Injury Update: PIT-26-B.Echols has returned to the game.
2. (:48) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 36-Z.Scott ran ob at MIN 39 for 9 yards (42-J.Pierre; 41-P.Wilson).
3. (:43) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short left [51-N.Herbig]. PENALTY on MIN-11-C.Wentz, Intentional Grounding, 16 yards, enforced at MIN 39.
4. (:28) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 37 for 14 yards (6-P.Queen).
5. (:15) (No Huddle) 11-C.Wentz spiked the ball to stop the clock.
6. (:14) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep middle to 3-J.Addison (25-D.Elliott).

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.14 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.06 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.