Saints vs 49ers — Week 2, 2025
The Saints took over trailing 26-21 with 4:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 11, 3 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Saints 21, 49ers 26. 49ers won 26-21 — the drive turned it over.
Saints ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 11, 4:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.5% for Saints. Our model starts at 20.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:35) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short right to 41-A.Kamara pushed ob at NO 15 for 4 yards (54-F.Warner).
- (4:29) (Shotgun) 41-A.Kamara up the middle to NO 15 for no gain (93-K.Davis).
- (3:50) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler sacked at NO 10 for -5 yards (97-N.Bosa).
- (3:12) 32-K.Kroeger punts 39 yards to NO 49, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-13-V.Jones.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.63 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.03 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.63 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.69 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.92 pts |
| Deep post | -0.93 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.95 pts |
| Play action | -1.11 pts |
| Quick out | -1.20 pts |
| QB keep | -1.21 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.32 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.38 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.43 pts |
| Outside run | -1.81 pts |
| Inside run | -1.81 pts |
| Spike it | -1.96 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.03 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.