Cowboys vs Eagles — Week 1, 2025
The Cowboys took over trailing 24-20 with 3:02 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 20, Eagles 24. Eagles won 24-20 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Cowboys ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 18, 3:02 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 24.1% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 22.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson pushed ob at DAL 23 for 5 yards (53-Z.Baun).
- (2:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 88-C.Lamb.
- (2:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at DAL 38 for 15 yards (8-A.Jackson).
- (2:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 88-C.Lamb (27-Q.Mitchell).
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 86-L.Schoonmaker (33-C.DeJean).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 33-J.Williams to DAL 45 for 7 yards (53-Z.Baun).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep left to 88-C.Lamb.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.04 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.72 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.60 pts |
| QB keep | +0.42 pts |
| Deep post | +0.41 pts |
| Play action | +0.25 pts |
| Quick out | +0.00 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.08 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.23 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.31 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.35 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.79 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.04 pts |
| Outside run | -1.11 pts |
| Inside run | -1.63 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.82 pts |
| Spike it | -2.13 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.