Browns vs Steelers — Week 17, 2025
The Browns took over leading 10-6 with 4:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 10, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Browns 13, Steelers 6. Browns won 13-6 — the drive turned it over.
Browns ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Backed up at their own 10, 4:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 74.9% for Browns. Our model starts at 77.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:54) 22-D.Sampson right tackle to CLE 13 for 3 yards (97-Ca.Heyward; 99-D.Harmon).
- (4:12) 12-S.Sanders scrambles left end to CLE 19 for 6 yards (5-J.Ramsey).
- (3:24) (Shotgun) 98-A.Huntington reported in as eligible. 35-R.Sanders up the middle to CLE 19 for no gain (29-K.Dugger; 50-M.Harrison).
- (2:24) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 61 yards to PIT 20, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 13-S.Miller.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.75 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.34 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.75 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.90 pts |
| Outside run | -0.92 pts |
| Inside run | -1.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.26 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.43 pts |
| Quick out | -1.69 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.71 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.73 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.77 pts |
| QB keep | -1.83 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.96 pts |
| Play action | -2.87 pts |
| Curl route | -2.91 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.83 pts |
| End-around | -4.94 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.52 pts |
| Deep post | -7.22 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.94 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.34 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.