Saints vs Buccaneers — Week 14, 2025
The Saints took over leading 24-20 with 4:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Saints 24, Buccaneers 20. Saints won 24-20 — the drive turned it over.
Saints ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 18, 4:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 75.1% for Saints. Our model starts at 78.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:48) (Shotgun) 24-D.Neal up the middle to NO 22 for 4 yards (0-Y.Diaby; 43-C.Braswell). ** Injury Update: TB-23-T.Smith has returned to the game.
- (4:05) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 7-T.Hill.
- (4:02) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 14-D.Vele to NO 33 for 11 yards (31-A.Winfield) [0-Y.Diaby]. ** Injury Update: TB-5-H.Reddick has returned to the game.
- (3:21) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough left end to NO 35 for 2 yards (35-J.Dean).
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 24-D.Neal left tackle to NO 38 for 3 yards (96-G.Gaines).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele to TB 49 for 13 yards (25-J.Parrish). Penalty on TB-95-E.Roberts, Defensive Offside, declined.
- (2:29) 24-D.Neal left tackle to 50 for -1 yards (50-V.Vea).
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 24-D.Neal left tackle to 50 for no gain (50-V.Vea; 96-G.Gaines).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right to 14-D.Vele (98-A.Nelson, 31-A.Winfield).
- (1:54) 32-K.Kroeger punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.77 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.91 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.77 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.29 pts |
| Outside run | -0.55 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.82 pts |
| Quick out | -0.83 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.84 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.91 pts |
| QB keep | -0.96 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.01 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.03 pts |
| Inside run | -1.05 pts |
| Play action | -1.72 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.85 pts |
| Curl route | -1.94 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.93 pts |
| End-around | -4.20 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.60 pts |
| Deep post | -6.35 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.33 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.91 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.