Patriots vs Falcons — Week 9, 2025
The Patriots took over leading 24-23 with 4:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 24, Falcons 23. Patriots won 24-23 — the drive turned it over.
Patriots ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 29, 4:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 72.6% for Patriots. Our model starts at 63.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:34) 32-T.Henderson right guard to NE 33 for 4 yards (24-A.Terrell; 54-B.Dorlus).
- (3:50) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 18-K.Williams.
- (3:46) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short left to 32-T.Henderson (11-J.Walker).
- (3:43) 17-B.Baringer punts 61 yards to ATL 6, Center-47-J.Ashby. 14-J.Agnew pushed ob at ATL 19 for 13 yards (47-J.Ashby).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.02 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.63 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.02 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.61 pts |
| QB keep | +0.36 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.16 pts |
| Outside run | +0.09 pts |
| Quick out | -0.06 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.18 pts |
| Curl route | -0.37 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.63 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.69 pts |
| Play action | -0.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.80 pts |
| End-around | -3.08 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.26 pts |
| Deep post | -4.35 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.37 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.63 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.