Cardinals vs 49ers — Week 3, 2025
The Cardinals took over leading 15-13 with 3:10 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 2 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 15, 49ers 16. 49ers won 16-15 — the drive turned it over.
Cardinals ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 35, 3:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 74.6% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 74.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray left end to ARI 44 for 9 yards (0-R.Green; 36-M.Sigle).
- (2:23) 33-T.Benson up the middle to ARI 49 for 5 yards (92-J.Elliott; 91-S.Okuayinonu).
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray right end to 50 for 1 yard (36-M.Sigle).
- (2:15) (Shotgun) 33-T.Benson right guard to 50 for no gain (54-F.Warner).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep right to 17-Z.Jones (20-U.Stout).
- (1:54) 12-B.Gillikin punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.52 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.87 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.52 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.60 pts |
| Outside run | +0.34 pts |
| QB keep | +0.24 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.07 pts |
| Quick out | -0.07 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.34 pts |
| Inside run | -0.39 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Curl route | -0.78 pts |
| Play action | -1.03 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.16 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.33 pts |
| End-around | -3.45 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.92 pts |
| Deep post | -5.52 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.34 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.87 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.