Giants vs Bears — Week 10, 2025
The Giants took over leading 20-17 with 3:56 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Giants 20, Bears 24. Bears won 24-20 — the drive turned it over.
Giants ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 35, 3:56 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 75.5% for Giants. Our model starts at 79.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:56) 3-R.Wilson sacked at NYG 33 for -2 yards (98-M.Sweat).
- (3:11) 26-D.Singletary up the middle to NYG 38 for 5 yards (98-M.Sweat).
- (3:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at NYG 27 for -11 yards (35-C.Gardner-Johnson).
- (3:01) 12-J.Gillan punts 26 yards to CHI 47, Center-59-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.67 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.72 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.67 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.19 pts |
| Outside run | +0.17 pts |
| QB keep | -0.22 pts |
| Quick out | -0.39 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.43 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.47 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.50 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.60 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.24 pts |
| Curl route | -1.48 pts |
| Play action | -1.56 pts |
| End-around | -3.86 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.93 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.59 pts |
| Deep post | -6.47 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.08 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.72 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.