Giants vs Broncos — Week 7, 2025
The Giants took over leading 26-23 with 3:45 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 1 timeout in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Giants 32, Broncos 33. Broncos won 33-32 — the drive turned it over.
Giants ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 28, 3:45 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 75.4% for Giants. Our model starts at 76.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:45) 44-C.Skattebo left end to NYG 28 for no gain (93-D.Jones).
- (3:01) 44-C.Skattebo right guard to NYG 30 for 2 yards (40-J.Strnad).
- (2:56) (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart pass incomplete deep left to 17-W.Robinson.
- (2:51) 12-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to DEN 20, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 32 for 12 yards (47-N.Hewitt).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.70 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.21 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.70 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.39 pts |
| Outside run | -0.09 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.17 pts |
| Quick out | -0.23 pts |
| QB keep | -0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.48 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| Play action | -0.96 pts |
| Curl route | -1.11 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.22 pts |
| End-around | -3.59 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.84 pts |
| Deep post | -5.43 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.64 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.21 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.