Bills vs Eagles — Week 17, 2025
The Bills took over trailing 13-6 with 3:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Bills 12, Eagles 13. Eagles won 13-12 — the drive scored.
Bills ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 17, 3:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.1% for Bills. Our model starts at 10.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:21) 4-J.Cook right tackle to BUF 23 for 6 yards (33-C.DeJean). ** Injury Update: BUF-79-S.Brown has returned to the game.
- (2:40) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right [97-M.Ojomo].
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 18-B.Cooks ran ob at BUF 29 for 6 yards.
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 26-Ty.Johnson.
- (2:26) (Shotgun) 26-Ty.Johnson up the middle to BUF 30 for 1 yard (53-Z.Baun).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 26-Ty.Johnson to BUF 29 for -1 yards (53-Z.Baun, 30-J.Campbell).
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-T.Shavers to BUF 33 for 4 yards. Lateral to 26-Ty.Johnson pushed ob at PHI 46 for 21 yards (39-M.Epps).
- (1:44) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 14-T.Shavers (98-J.Carter).
- (1:40) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 18-B.Cooks to PHI 10 for 36 yards (39-M.Epps).
- (1:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left guard to PHI 9 for 1 yard (97-M.Ojomo; 3-N.Smith).
- (:33) 17-J.Allen scrambles left tackle to PHI 3 for 6 yards (90-J.Davis).
- (:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox to PHI 1 for 2 yards (8-A.Jackson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+0.76 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.27 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +0.76 pts |
| Curl route | +0.44 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.23 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.12 pts |
| Play action | +0.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.09 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.06 pts |
| QB keep | -0.12 pts |
| Quick out | -0.18 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.22 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.58 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Outside run | -1.02 pts |
| Spike it | -1.11 pts |
| Inside run | -1.20 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.27 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.