Titans vs Texans — Week 11, 2025
The Titans took over trailing 13-6 with 4:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 5, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Titans 13, Texans 16. Texans won 16-13 — the drive scored.
Titans ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. Backed up at their own 5, 4:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.6% for Titans. Our model starts at 13.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:57) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 84-G.Helm to TEN 9 for 4 yards (24-D.Stingley).
- (4:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 20-T.Pollard to TEN 11 for 2 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).
- (3:35) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 84-G.Helm to TEN 17 for 6 yards (2-C.Bullock).
- (3:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short middle to 5-E.Ayomanor (72-T.Togiai).
- (2:59) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 12-M.Kinsey.
- (2:50) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward scrambles up the middle to HOU 45 for 20 yards (4-K.Lassiter). PENALTY on HOU-96-D.Autry, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at HOU 45.
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 84-G.Helm to HOU 32 for 8 yards (39-H.To'oTo'o; 30-J.Mills).
- (2:02) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at HOU 46 for -9 yards (sack split by 72-T.Togiai and 55-D.Hunter).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 85-C.Okonkwo ran ob at HOU 7 for 39 yards [55-D.Hunter].
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward scrambles up the middle to HOU 4 for 3 yards (97-M.Edwards).
- (1:40) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 11-V.Jefferson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-0.67 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.52 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.81 pts |
| Quick out | -0.86 pts |
| QB keep | -0.87 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.89 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.94 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.99 pts |
| Deep post | -1.01 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.11 pts |
| Curl route | -1.12 pts |
| Play action | -1.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.35 pts |
| Spike it | -1.37 pts |
| Inside run | -1.38 pts |
| Outside run | -1.39 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.43 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.