Saints vs Panthers — Week 15, 2025
The Saints took over trailing 17-10 with 4:37 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Saints 20, Panthers 17. Saints won 20-17 — the drive scored.
Saints ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 22, 4:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.8% for Saints. Our model starts at 13.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:37) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 81-K.Austin to NO 33 for 11 yards (7-T.Moehrig).
- (4:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep middle to 12-C.Olave to 50 for 17 yards (21-N.Scott).
- (3:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave ran ob at CAR 32 for 18 yards.
- (3:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 12-C.Olave to CAR 16 for 16 yards (21-N.Scott).
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short left to 81-K.Austin.
- (3:17) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 83-J.Johnson to CAR 12 for 9 yards (21-N.Scott; 8-Ja.Horn).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 12-C.Olave for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.77 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.36 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.77 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.53 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.52 pts |
| QB keep | +0.44 pts |
| Deep post | +0.38 pts |
| Play action | +0.25 pts |
| Quick out | +0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.11 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.06 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.08 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.09 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -0.95 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.07 pts |
| Spike it | -1.36 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.