Buccaneers vs Seahawks — Week 5, 2025
The Buccaneers took over trailing 35-28 with 3:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 38, Seahawks 35. Buccaneers won 38-35 — the drive scored.
Buccaneers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 30, 3:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 14.5% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 11.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 2-E.Egbuka to SEA 45 for 25 yards (8-C.Bryant). ** Injury Update: SEA-3-N.Emmanwori has returned to the game.
- (2:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left.
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-C.Otton to SEA 20 for 25 yards (8-C.Bryant).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 2-E.Egbuka to SEA 11 for 9 yards (29-J.Jobe; 99-L.Williams).
- (1:15) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 17-S.Shepard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.99 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.27 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.99 pts |
| Deep post | +0.81 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.69 pts |
| QB keep | +0.68 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.63 pts |
| Play action | +0.40 pts |
| Quick out | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.18 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.01 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.32 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| Outside run | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.08 pts |
| Spike it | -1.27 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.