Giants vs Packers — Week 11, 2025
The Giants took over trailing 27-20 with 4:02 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Giants 20, Packers 27. Packers won 27-20 — the drive turnover.
Giants ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 35, 4:02 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.7% for Giants. Our model starts at 14.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:02) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 17-W.Robinson to NYG 40 for 5 yards (58-I.McDuffie).
- (3:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 17-W.Robinson (25-K.Nixon).
- (3:33) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short right to 84-T.Johnson pushed ob at GB 49 for 11 yards (25-K.Nixon).
- (3:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-T.Tracy left guard to GB 32 for 17 yards (29-X.McKinney; 33-E.Williams).
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short middle to 29-T.Tracy to GB 25 for 7 yards (25-K.Nixon) [1-M.Parsons].
- (2:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 89-I.Hodgins (25-K.Nixon).
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary up the middle to GB 18 for 7 yards (56-E.Cooper).
- (1:22) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete deep right to 17-W.Robinson (20-J.Bullard).
- (1:17) (Shotgun) 26-D.Singletary left tackle to GB 14 for 4 yards (56-E.Cooper).
- (:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep left intended for 13-J.Hyatt INTERCEPTED by 33-E.Williams at GB -5. Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.00 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.52 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.00 pts |
| QB keep | +0.76 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.71 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.68 pts |
| Deep post | +0.60 pts |
| Play action | +0.39 pts |
| Quick out | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.05 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.01 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.35 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| Outside run | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.98 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.11 pts |
| Spike it | -1.52 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.