Vikings vs Bears — Week 11, 2025
The Vikings took over trailing 16-10 with 3:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 17, Bears 19. Bears won 19-17 — the drive scored.
Vikings ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 15, 3:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.0% for Vikings. Our model starts at 12.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:14) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right guard to MIN 18 for 3 yards (35-C.Gardner-Johnson).
- (2:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to MIN 39 for 21 yards (49-T.Edmunds) [35-C.Gardner-Johnson].
- (2:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 33-A.Jones right tackle to MIN 45 for 6 yards (9-J.Brisker; 49-T.Edmunds).
- (2:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short right to 87-T.Hockenson.
- (2:03) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass incomplete short right to 33-A.Jones (98-M.Sweat).
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 3-J.Addison to 50 for 5 yards (24-N.McCloud) [49-T.Edmunds].
- (1:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to CHI 42 for 8 yards (44-N.Sewell).
- (1:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short middle to 87-T.Hockenson to CHI 31 for 11 yards (9-J.Brisker).
- (1:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 1-J.Nailor ran ob at CHI 15 for 16 yards.
- (:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short left to 3-J.Addison for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.24 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.64 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.24 pts |
| Deep post | +0.23 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.04 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.13 pts |
| Play action | -0.26 pts |
| QB keep | -0.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.36 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.40 pts |
| Quick out | -0.49 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.52 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.68 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.71 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.89 pts |
| Outside run | -1.32 pts |
| Spike it | -1.35 pts |
| Inside run | -1.56 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.64 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.