Titans vs Saints — Week 17, 2025
The Titans took over trailing 34-26 with 3:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Titans 26, Saints 34. Saints won 34-26 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Titans ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 35, 3:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 8.6% for Titans. Our model starts at 10.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:44) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 13-J.Proche ran ob at TEN 40 for 5 yards.
- (3:38) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short middle to 20-T.Pollard to 50 for 10 yards (20-P.Werner).
- (3:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 85-C.Okonkwo to NO 41 for 9 yards (1-A.Taylor; 56-D.Davis).
- (2:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left tackle to NO 37 for 4 yards (99-C.Young).
- (2:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to 85-C.Okonkwo (21-J.Reid).
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 13-J.Proche (1-A.Taylor) [1-A.Taylor].
- (2:18) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right.
- (2:09) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward sacked at NO 38 for -1 yards (94-C.Jordan).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.04 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.12 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.04 pts |
| Curl route | +0.81 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.56 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.52 pts |
| Play action | +0.49 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.37 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.35 pts |
| QB keep | +0.28 pts |
| Quick out | +0.20 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.73 pts |
| Inside run | -0.95 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.04 pts |
| Spike it | -1.12 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.