Saints vs Cardinals — Week 1, 2025

What really happened

Final: Saints 13, Cardinals 20. Cardinals won 20-13 — the drive turned it over on downs.

Saints ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 42, 1:49 on the clock, no timeouts left.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 10.0% for Saints. Our model starts at 9.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (1:49) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short middle to 12-C.Olave to ARI 47 for 11 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass incomplete short middle to 12-C.Olave (42-D.Taylor-Demerson).
2. (1:45) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler scrambles right tackle to ARI 49 for 9 yards (93-C.Campbell).
3. (1:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short right to 10-B.Cooks ran ob at ARI 43 for 6 yards (3-B.Baker).
4. (1:20) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to ARI 38 for 5 yards (16-M.Melton; 3-B.Baker).
5. (1:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short middle to 41-A.Kamara to ARI 33 for 5 yards (21-G.Williams).
6. (:49) (No Huddle) 2-S.Rattler spiked the ball to stop the clock.
7. (:48) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass incomplete deep left to 22-R.Shaheed.
8. (:43) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short middle to 12-C.Olave to ARI 24 for 9 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson).
9. (:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short right to 22-R.Shaheed to ARI 18 for 6 yards (0-W.Johnson).
10. (:14) (No Huddle) 2-S.Rattler spiked the ball to stop the clock.
11. (:13) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass incomplete deep right to 83-J.Johnson.
12. (:09) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass incomplete deep left to 83-J.Johnson (3-B.Baker, 34-J.Thompson).

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.14 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.05 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.